MUMBAI: India is expected to provide the largest increase in pay TV revenues at $1.6 billion between 2017 and 2023, while the country, along with China, will account for 50% of global pay TV subscribers by then, a report released by Digital TV Research states.
Digital TV Research’s Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts report estimates that eight of the top 10 countries (barring India and China) will lose pay TV revenues between 2017 and 2023. Revenues will decline in 47 of the 138 countries covered in the report between 2017 and 2023.
While China will gain nearly $1 billion in pay TV revenues between 2017 and 2023 to bring its total to $13 billion, India will provide the largest increase in pay TV revenues at $1.6 billion. Both countries will still lag a long way behind the US though.
Digital TV Research forecasts 95 million additional pay TV subscribers between 2017 and 2023 to take the global total to 1.10 billion. The number of pay TV subscribers passed 1 billion in 2017.
The report concludes that IPTV will win most of the additional subscribers – or 81 million. IPTV will overtake pay satellite TV subs in 2018.
The Asia Pacific pay TV sector is vibrant, with subscribers up by 78 million over the next five years to 686 million.
China will continue to supply about a third of the world’s pay TV subscribers, with 375 million expected by end-2023. India will bring in another 16% of the total by 2023 – or 180 million. China and India will together provide half the world’s pay TV subscribers by 2023.
Global pay TV revenues to fall by 11%
Global pay TV revenues peaked in 2016 at $205 billion. Revenues will fall by 11% to $183 billion in 2023, despite the number of pay TV subscribers rising by 9%.
Revenues per subscriber are declining as more homes convert to bundles.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, states: “North American revenues will fall by a huge $22 billion between 2017 and 2023. The global decline will be $19 billion, so the other regions will grow overall. Western Europe will lose $2 billion but Asia Pacific will record a $3 billion increase.”
Twelve countries will lose more than 10% of their revenues. US pay TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $102 billion. A $27 billion decline is forecast between 2015 and 2023 to take its total down to $75 billion.
Revenues will more than double for six countries between 2017 and 2023. Eight of the top 10 fast-growth nations by percentage increase will be in Africa.
IPTV is the pay TV revenue winner, with revenues increasing from $25 billion in 2017 to $27 billion in 2023.
Murray added: “It’s no secret that pay TV subscriber numbers are falling in North America. We forecast 92 million pay TV subs in the region by 2023; down by 20 million from 112 million in the peak year of 2012.”
Western Europe will still gain subscribers between 2017 and 2023. Although this only represents a 2.6% increase, it means nearly 3 million more subs to take the total to 106 million.
The number of pay TV subscribers was flat in Latin America in 2017. Fewer than 5 million more pay TV subscribers are expected between 2017 and 2023 – bringing its total to almost 76 million.
Sub-Saharan Africa will climb by 74% between 2017 and 2023 to 41 million pay TV subscribers. In the Middle East and North Africa, the number of pay TV homes will increase by 4.5 million between 2017 and 2023 to 21 million.
Eastern Europe will lose 2.4 million subscribers between 2017 and 2023 – down by 2.9% to 79 million. This is more to do with poor economic conditions than cordcutting.
Eastern Europe also has a legacy of low-paying analog cable TV subscribers to convert to digital. 2017 was the peak year for the region. The 2017 total included 20 million analog cable subscribers.
