IN THE AFTERMATH of the year it’s been for Novak Djokovic, one could be forgiven for believing that the changing of the guard is now complete. Djokovic has had one of the most dominant seasons in the history of the men’s game, and there is already talk of him being in line for becoming the greatest of all time. In all honesty, such talk is premature. Although he has dominated all who’ve come in his way at some point or the other, the fact remains that Djokovic is faced with a unique situation. Roger and Rafa, although not as utterly dominant as they once were, are still forces to be reckoned with. This was evident at the U.S. Open a week ago where the semifinals and the finals were no laughing matter for the man they call the Djoker.
The emphatic manner in which Nadal fried the French at the Davis Cup this weekend on clay would give nightmares to anyone looking ahead to April and the clay court season. Even Roger showed few signs of fatigue when playing on three consecutive days against the Australians on grass. Djokovic on the other hand seems to be feeling the pain at the Davis Cup. He was a non-starter for the opening tie against Nalbandian, and a non-finisher against the increasingly dangerous Del Potro- one of the few grand slam winners besides the ‘big 3’.
2012 is going to be the most intriguing and potentially exciting year perhaps in the history of men’s tennis. For the first time ever, there are actually chess-matches that are dependant on the luck of the draw, and the fate of the rankings/seeding. There are so many permutations and combinations that could emerge, and separate the contenders from the pretenders, although there really aren’t that many who can contend and overcome the big 3. There are a few mental edges that are easy to determine, and there are valid reasons for each. Roger, due to his inability to solve the Nadal dilemma, invariably finds himself looking ahead to a potential final against his great rival. There will be times this season when Roger will likely play and beat Rafa, possibly if they play each other in an earlier round than a grand slam finals. This may happen especially if Nadal isn’t 100% mentally or physically- an increasingly more common occurrence nowadays. And this in turn is due to his inability to overcome Djokovic. It isn’t a rocket scientist’s observation that Rafa is as uncomfortable facing Djokovic in a grand slam final as Roger is uncomfortable facing Rafa at a similar stage. The fourth wheel to this tricycle is the much-maligned Andy Murray, who just can’t buy a break the last couple of years. He is a legitimate contender, and at the quarters and semis of a grand slam he can beat any of the big 3, and perhaps convincingly. His ability to win his first grand slam final however would depend to a large extent on him playing a less-than fluent opponent in the final- either a fatigued/injured member of the big 3, or a dark horse surprise finalist.
It will be difficult for Novak to repeat a season such as this, especially if there are certain changes in the match-ups or rankings. Roger plays his best against Djokovic, and if the rankings or seeding ever changed in a way that Murray drew Djokovic and Roger faced Rafa in the semi-finals, a Murray-Roger, or a Djokovic-Roger final is a very possible outcome. And, given Murray’s propensity to beat himself at the third weekend of a Grand Slam, and Roger’s ability to keep up with Djokovic stroke for stroke, the final might be Roger’s to lose. And, with the occasional Del Potro blitz, or Tsonga sting, there could be an occasional upset grand slam winner over the next couple of years.
The next season or two will likely be blockbusters, especially with the London Olympics 2012 on the hallowed lawns of the All-England club. And, with two of the biggest stars that the tennis world has ever witnessed still contending and a seemingly worthy successor emerging victorious in an epic season and donning the mantle of the world’s best, it may seem that men’s tennis as an industry is in a great space. But it may not be. Roger and Rafa together command a brand value of approximately USD $80 million annually, with Roger amassing a ridiculous USD $49 million in 2010-11. More than that however, they are a rivalry for the ages, contrasting styles and personalities, but with one common unbreakable similarity. Likeability.
Roger is of course the consummate artist, gliding and gracing the court and the crowds. Rafa is the ultimate warrior, with gravity-defying speed and strength and bulldog mentality. However, both players respect the game, the fans, and above all, respect each other and their opponents. They will be hard-pressed to criticize or make excuses except in extreme circumstances. They are sportsmen, not gamesmen, and almost unanimously considered class acts. And, for a sport like tennis, the industry is dependant on role models. Rafa and Roger will be around for a few more years, but increasingly age and fatigue will take a toll on both, and that is where the true test for the business of tennis as a successful industry will arise. The cross-over superstar will be a must.
Djokovic is clearly the frontrunner- he has game, he has swagger, he has attitude, and he loves the big stage. Watching him against Roger, down match-points in the semi-finals, I was reminded of Jimmy Connors. Djokovic displayed remarkable poise, and by getting the crowd involved, he essentially gave Roger enough food for thought to cater to Federer’s last meal at the Open 2011. Djokovic has a rabid fan-base among today’s younger fans that like a bit of bite and sizzle with their gluten-free meals. However, he is also a polarizing figure to many, including the big 2, who don’t often react well to his antics and impersonations. He has a big heart, he has a lot of fight in him, but he also has a flair for the dramatics, and perhaps gamesmanship. There are millions of fans that he has, and for the time being he is a perfect foil to the benign Roger or the mellower Rafa. But what happens next is the concern.
The road to greatness will not be easy for Nole, as his family and fans know him: he will need to handle Roger and Rafa, and once they gracefully bow out, he will need to overcome the giant shadows that their absences will cast over men’s tennis. If anyone can do it, it should be Novak with his game, confidence and heart. But, he will need to supersize his reserves of all three to overcome the odds. To the winner go the spoils, but one thing’s for sure- there are some pretty big shoes to fill in the post-Rafa and Roger days. And whether there is a cross-over star: Djokovic, Murray, or anyone else who can compete in the branding and monetizing of the business of tennis with the big 2, is the hundred million dollar question. Tennis is a brand-dependant sport, and in the absence of wholesome role-model stars, one wonders if Djokovic will be able to become the man who could convert the golden decade of tennis into platinum. His impeccable season has given him the right to try- and in his post-gluten days, he has definitely shown a palatable appetite for competition and challenge.
