WPP MEDIA HAS raised its global advertising growth forecast for 2026 to 8.9%, projecting the market will reach $1.3 trillion, up from a 7.1% growth estimate issued in December. The upgrade comes despite elevated global economic uncertainty, including ongoing conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine, inflationary pressures, and concerns over energy supplies and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
WPP Media Global President of Business Intelligence Kate Scott-Dawkins said, “We see a market that remains surprisingly strong, highlighting robust advertiser demand and continued digital expansion.”
The United States is a key driver of the upgraded forecast, with WPP Media raising its US ad expenditure growth projection by 4.5 percentage points to 11.9% for 2026, excluding political advertising. Including midterm election spending, total US advertising growth is expected to reach 13.9%.
Europe faces greater exposure to energy risks, with WPP Media forecasting more modest advertising growth of 6.9% for the region. Continental Europe is expected to feel the sharpest impact from tensions involving Iran due to its dependence on imported energy, while the UK is considered relatively more insulated. Rising energy costs, weaker consumer confidence, and slower economic momentum are expected to constrain advertiser spending.
WPP Media’s global advertising analyst Ross Scott-Dawkins identified three structural trends driving growth: China’s trade surplus has doubled between 2021 and 2025, with Chinese EV manufacturers, electronics producers, and technology exporters investing heavily in overseas marketing as they expand globally.
Media power is consolidating around a small group of platforms. The five largest advertising sellers: Google, Meta, ByteDance, Amazon, and Alibaba, now account for 58% of worldwide advertising revenues. Traditional media companies have disappeared from the global top ten for the first time, with six of the ten largest ad-selling platforms now being Chinese companies. The broader top ten includes Temu, Microsoft, Tencent, JD.com, and Kuaishou.
Accelerating AI investment is the third structural force, with the industry increasingly evolving into a dual-track system dominated by American and Chinese technology platforms.
WPP Media has, for the first time, separately measured the generative AI search advertising market, covering placements within Google’s AI Overviews and AI Mode, as well as sponsored opportunities across platforms like ChatGPT.
Combined, traditional and AI-driven search are expected to account for 21.8% of global advertising spending in 2026, generating over $270 billion. Generative AI search currently represents around $5.1 billion, or 0.4% of total global ad spend, but is projected to grow to $32 billion by 2031, capturing nearly 40% of the total search advertising market. WPP Media predicts it will become the fastest media channel in history to surpass $100 billion in advertising revenue.
WPP Media cautions that economic pressures remain challenging despite the positive forecasts. Rising fuel costs, raw material expenses, and inflation continue to weigh on households and corporate margins. In the United States, labour’s share of productivity has fallen to its lowest level since 1947, while AI-driven automation is creating uncertainty across white-collar professions, particularly in entry-level and administrative roles.
Scott-Dawkins added, “There is a clear disconnect between overall market growth and the pressure being felt in certain sectors and regions.”
WPP Media’s core forecast assumes the global economy avoids recession and that tensions involving Iran gradually ease. Under a more pessimistic scenario, the advertising market is still expected to grow by 7.8% in 2026, though growth could moderate in 2027 as economic and geopolitical pressures build.
