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Gracenote uses a proprietary football ranking system to estimate the chances of different results for every possible World Cup 2022 match through extensive simulations, to assess the chances for each team to reach different stages of the tournament. The forecasts will be updated daily during the tournament at the Nielsen World Cup Data Hub.
Spotlight
● According to Gracenote, Brazil is the favorite to win the 2022 World Cup with a 20% chance of lifting the trophy on December 18. Brazil is at the top of Gracenote’s World Football Ranking after losing just three times in 50 matches since being eliminated from the 2018 World Cup by Belgium.
● Argentina has a 16% chance of becoming world champions for the first time since 1986. Since losing to France at the 2018 World Cup, Argentina have lost four matches but the team is unbeaten for over three years, since a 2-0 defeat by Brazil in July 2019.
● If both Brazil and Argentina win their respective groups, they will enter the knockout phase in the same half of the draw and will meet in the semi-finals. Despite this, a World Cup final between Brazil and Argentina is currently the most likely match-up on December 18 according to Gracenote simulations.
● The leading European contenders for the trophy this year are Spain and the Netherlands, both with a 7% chance of lifting the trophy, and Belgium with a 6% chance. World Cup holders France are next according to Gracenote projections with a 5% chance of a repeat performance.
● The most likely 16 teams to qualify for the knockout phase of World Cup 2022 are Argentina, Brazil, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, France, Uruguay, Denmark, England, Germany, Switzerland, Ecuador, Croatia, IR Iran and Mexico.
● Morocco is the most likely African team to reach the knockout phase but begins the tournament as third favorites to progress from Group F, behind 2018 semi-finalists Belgium and finalists Croatia.
Simon Gleave, head of analysis for Gracenote Sports, said, “Based on their dominance of international football since the last World Cup, Gracenote projects Brazil and Argentina to continue to outperform competitors in the upcoming tournament. No other teams have been anywhere near as consistent over the last four years as the two South American giants and this consistency means that there is a good chance of one of them prevailing in front of a global audience of fans.”
