A PROLONGED GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS in the Middle East could significantly disrupt global advertising growth, with as much as $93.9 billion in projected ad spend at risk over the next two years, according to a new report by WARC.
The study highlights the vulnerability of the global advertising market to macroeconomic shocks, particularly those driven by energy price volatility and supply disruptions in the Gulf region.
WARC has forecast global advertising expenditure to grow by 10.4% in 2026, reaching approximately $1.32 trillion. However, this outlook is highly contingent on the stability of the Middle East, a critical region for global energy supply. Under a severe disruption scenario, such as prolonged closure of key oil transit routes, global ad growth could be reduced by 7.3 percentage points, translating into a loss of nearly $94 billion in expected growth over 2026–27.
WARC’s analysis suggests that a sustained rise in oil prices would act as a “tax on consumers,” pushing up inflation while eroding disposable income. This, in turn, would lead brands to cut back on discretionary spending, including advertising budgets, as companies attempt to protect margins amid rising costs and weakening demand.
In a worst-case scenario, the report warns of stagflation-like conditions characterised by high inflation and low growth, further dampening advertising investment globally.
Certain industries are expected to be more vulnerable than others. Travel and transport are likely to be the hardest hit, with ad spend in the sector projected to decline even under milder disruption scenarios due to rising fuel costs and reduced consumer travel demand. Other sectors such as automotive, food, consumer electronics and leisure could also face slower ad growth as both production costs and consumer prices rise.
Despite the risks, digital platforms are expected to continue capturing a significant share of ad growth, although at potentially slower rates in a volatile macroeconomic environment.
The report comes at a time when the global advertising industry is experiencing strong momentum driven by digital transformation and platform growth. However, WARC cautions that geopolitical risks—particularly those impacting energy markets—could quickly alter the trajectory. The analysis reinforces the need for brands and media companies to remain agile, with flexible budgeting and scenario planning becoming critical as global uncertainties intensify.
